COP30 ends without a roadmap for the end of fossil fuels, but makes progress on adaptation, just transition, and indigenous issues
The most critical issue in combating the climate crisis stalled negotiations, and the Brazilian presidency proposes an alternative solution
Giovana Girardi, Isabel Seta
The 30th UN Climate Conference, COP30, in Belém, ended this Saturday, November 22nd, with a package of decisions on important issues in the fight against the climate crisis, such as adaptation goals and a mechanism for a just transition, in addition to unprecedented advances for indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples. However, the conference ended without managing to provide immediate answers to the issue that most hindered the debates in recent days: the idea of a roadmap that could lead us away from fossil fuels.
The Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, the main guarantor of this proposal throughout the year, stated at the end of the COP closing plenary: “Although it was not yet possible to reach a consensus for this fundamental call to be included in the decisions of this COP30, I am certain that the support it received from many parties and from society strengthens the commitment of the current presidency to dedicate itself to developing two roadmaps.”
“Finally, we have progressed, albeit modestly,” said Marina. “We are still here! And we remain committed to undertaking the necessary journey to overcome our differences and contradictions in the urgent fight against climate change.”
Without a solution within the negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the COP president, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, committed to leading, on his own initiative, a discussion next year on roadmaps for both reducing dependence on fossil fuels and achieving zero deforestation worldwide. However, this will be a parallel process, led by him – and does not count as a measure to which all countries commit.
“It is my duty to acknowledge some very important discussions that took place in Belém and that need to continue during the Brazilian presidency until the next COP, even if they are not reflected in the texts we approved. And I want to reaffirm that I will try not to disappoint you during my presidency. So, as president of COP30, I will create two roadmaps: one to curb and reverse deforestation, and another for the transition away from fossil fuels in a fair, orderly, and equitable manner,” stated Corrêa do Lago.
The transition to economies less dependent on fossil fuels was never a formal agenda item that needed to be decided at the conference among the 194 participating countries, but it gained traction in recent days, especially after Colombia, along with other countries in Latin America, Europe, and nations more vulnerable to the climate crisis, began to emphatically advocate for this to be included in some way in the final decisions of the COP.
The proposal had been launched at the beginning of the conference by President Lula, who repeated the appeal several times and even returned to Belém mid-week to try to promote the idea among other countries in a series of bilateral meetings.
This is because fossil fuel producing nations, such as Saudi Arabia and India, didn’t want to hear anything about it. They threatened to block other items being discussed and argued that it’s impossible to discuss transition without first discussing financing, especially public financing, from developed countries to developing countries.
A mention of the transition “away from fossil fuels” was included in an initial draft decision, but was removed in the second version due to pressure from the group. And it ended up being left out of the final document, even though, throughout the week, advocates were quite vocal in their support for a decision in that direction. At one point, there were about 80 countries on one side and around 80 on the other. Since everything is by consensus, the “no” vote prevailed.
Many observers from civil society organizations criticized Europe’s stance, which even threatened to abandon the negotiations, as being used more as a bargaining chip to avoid excessive funding – an area where developed countries are always heavily criticized.
The plenary session’s closing was marked by confusion
On Saturday morning, with the conference already running overtime – it was scheduled to end on Friday – supposedly consensus texts began to be presented. The presidency’s idea was to intertwine the different items into a package format, so that there could be a balance in the negotiation, in the style of: “I give here, I win there”. In a plenary session that began after 1 pm, the documents began to be approved sequentially. Symbolically, the president banged a gavel signifying that there was an agreement.
But after the sequence of approvals, the discontent became evident. Several countries complained about the way the indicators for countries’ adaptation to climate change were discussed, as well as the final result.
The strongest position once again came from Colombia. Negotiator Daniela Durán González took the microphone and emphatically criticized the way the negotiations were conducted in the final hours, alleging that the COP30 presidency ignored the country’s request to include a mention of the need to discuss the transition away from fossil fuels in dialogues next year in the text on emissions reduction.
“The COP of truth cannot ignore science. According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from fossil fuels. There is no mitigation [emissions reduction] if we cannot discuss the transition away from fossil fuels, with means of implementation, and in a fair, orderly and equitable manner,” said the diplomat, just before announcing that Colombia rejected the approved text.
Faced with this and other objections from Latin American countries, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago suspended the session, which, after almost an hour of consultations between the countries and representatives of the UNFCCC, resumed with a resolution: as the decisions had already been agreed upon and the final decisions on each of them had already been made, they were considered formally adopted.
The president of COP30 apologized for not giving countries the opportunity to express their views and suggested that the two points of greatest divergence – the indicators for adaptation and the decision on emissions reduction – be improved in discussions in the middle of next year, but without opening new items for negotiation.
The other roadmap advocated by President Lula and supported by more than 90 countries – the roadmap to curb and reverse deforestation worldwide – was left behind.
The positive news for forest preservation was the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), initially conceived by Brazil and launched at COP30, although outside the agenda. Several countries have pledged to invest in the fund, which will still take years to begin making payments to rainforest countries for maintaining their forests.
A victory for civil society
For civil society organizations, one of the biggest victories of COP30 was the countries’ decision to develop a mechanism for them to cooperate, obtain technical assistance, and exchange knowledge to carry out so-called “just transitions”—changes necessary for economies to become less emitters of greenhouse gases that warm the planet—considering workers, indigenous peoples, local communities, migrants, Afro-descendants, women, children, the elderly, people with disabilities, and other vulnerable people.
“In an ocean of bad news, social movements won an important battle for rights and inclusion,” Anabella Rosemberg, a specialist on the subject at the Climate Action Network, told Pública.
The operationalization of the mechanism will still be discussed throughout the next year. Despite the progress, the decision on a just transition ended without any mention of renewable energy supply chains with the extraction of critical minerals carried out in a socially and environmentally responsible manner, something fundamental for developing countries and for traditional peoples and communities. The mention appeared in the first versions of the text, but did not obtain consensus to be retained.
COP30 also marked the resumption of participation by different social groups, who demonstrated on boats, in the streets, inside and outside the conference venues. After several editions of the conferences in authoritarian countries, civil society was eager to return to the space where everyone’s future is decided – the “celebration,” however, was short-lived, as the next COP will be in Turkey.
Among the groups that demonstrated most were different indigenous peoples, especially from Brazil. In the first conference held in the Amazon, which brought together those on the front lines of the climate crisis and showed the reality of an Amazonian city to people from all over the world, they achieved important gains.
For the first time, countries recognized the importance of the territorial rights and traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples as measures to address the climate crisis. This was one of the main demands of the Brazilian indigenous movement and Minister Sonia Guajajara (Indigenous Peoples), who worked with the Brazilian delegation and the COP presidency to ensure this recognition.
“For us, it is very historic, in the COP that had the greatest participation of indigenous peoples and local communities in the history of the COPs, to have the mention in the final text about the importance of the rights of indigenous peoples,” said Kleber Karipuna, from the executive coordination of the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil, to the press.
The decision on just transition also reaffirmed the importance of the free, prior and informed consent of indigenous peoples regarding any governmental decision or undertaking that affects them, in addition to recognizing, also for the first time, the rights of indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation and of recent contact.
It was also the first time that UNFCCC documents included explicit mentions of Afro-descendants, such as the quilombola populations in Brazil – a group that also came to COP30 to fight for their territorial rights and for the recognition of their contributions in addressing the climate crisis.
“The recognition of Afro-descendants in the texts paves the way for fairer, more effective climate policies rooted in the realities of territories historically affected by structural inequalities,” stated Geledés – Instituto da Mulher Negra (Geledés – Institute of the Black Woman). “This is not a symbolic gesture: the explicit presence of Afro-descendants in these agreements guarantees visibility, guides the allocation of funding, strengthens participation and contributes to correcting historical gaps in global climate governance,” they added.
Climate Change Adaptation Measures Pass with Frustration
Despite numerous complaints at the final plenary session, negotiators managed to approve the indicators for climate change adaptation measures. Two years of discussions and a lengthy consultation process with experts were needed to formulate a list of nearly a thousand indicators, which had already been reduced to one hundred at the start of COP30.
These indicators represent a new way to measure progress in the fight against the climate crisis – until now measured mainly by emissions reductions – and should serve as a benchmark when countries decide where to invest first in adaptation, such as basic sanitation, populations living in poverty, among others.
Over the last two weeks, countries continued debating these metrics, with developing countries, especially those in Africa, pressing for the decision not to be limited to measurements, but also to include increased funding (mainly public, to be mobilized by developed countries) so that they can implement their adaptation measures – something that the European Union and other developed countries, such as Canada, Japan, and Australia, were reluctant to accept.
Ultimately, the list of indicators was reduced to 59 – classified as “unclear, immeasurable and in many cases useless” by the representative from Sierra Leone. The issue of financing, however, was addressed in mild terms. The countries recalled a previous decision to triple the flows to the adaptation fund by 2035 and emphasized the urgent need for public financing to be mobilized for adaptation in developing countries. In earlier versions of the negotiated text, however, it was considered that a target of $120 billion per year until 2030 would be set.
“Belém adopted a package of decisions for adaptation, something unprecedented and important. With the adoption of the indicators of the global adaptation target, we will be able to count the progress of climate policy in terms of lives saved, resilient infrastructure, and not just in tons of carbon reduced. Its operationalization in the next two years will allow for a much more complete picture of adaptation in the next Global Balance of the Paris Agreement. In the Mutirão [a collaborative effort], the promise to triple adaptation is welcome, even if it has been diluted with a deadline of 2035. Adaptation cannot wait, especially because funding for developing countries is decreasing while climate impacts are accelerating,” Natalie Unterstell, from the Talanoa Institute, told Pública.
“We always knew that the decision here in Belém would be difficult, but the final text makes it clear that the parties did not fully support the collective ambition that the crisis demands. Even so, there are important pieces there. We have some foundations that, if used well, can lead to concrete acceleration in the real world. But honesty is needed: we haven’t even come close to addressing the size of the gap in the NDCs (each country’s climate targets) or the funding gap, especially for adaptation actions,” he added.
This report was produced by Agência Pública through the Collaborative Socio-environmental Coverage of COP 30. Read the original report at https://apublica.org/2025/11/cop30-acaba-sem-mapa-para-fim-de-fosseis-avanca-em-adaptacao-transicao-justa-e-indigenas/
